长三角快速城市化地区土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响——以嘉兴市为例

基于浙江省嘉兴市1979~2012年的土地利用数据,评估了各种土地利用类型的生态系统服务价值,分析了30多年来嘉兴市土地生态系统服务价值的动态变化及其对土地利用变化和景观格局变化的响应。结果表明:(1)1979~2012年,嘉兴市建设用地面积变化最大,增加了136.6%,相应的耕地面积减少了15.5%。(2)1979~2012年,嘉兴市景观破碎度指数从0.6531上升到0.8762,随着城市化进程的加剧,耕地景观破碎度指数不断增加、聚集度指数减小。(3)1979~2012年,嘉兴市的总生态系统服务价值减少了14.7%,2000~2012年嘉兴市总的生态系统服务价值减少尤为显著,生态系统各单项服务价值整体也呈现下降趋势,耕地为嘉兴市提供的生态系统服务占嘉兴市总生态系统服务的70%以上。(4)运用相关分析方法对嘉兴市土地利用类型和景观格局对土地生态系统服务价值的影响分析表明,耕地和水域与生态服务价值呈正相关,而建设用地和未利用地与生态服务价值呈负相关;景观多样性指数(SHDI)和耕地破碎度指数与生态系统服务总价值呈显著负相关关系。     

Implications of human value shift and persistence for biodiversity conservation

Large‐scale change in human values and associated behavior change is believed by some to be the ultimate solution to achieve global biodiversity conservation. Yet little is known about the dynamics of values. We contribute to this area of inquiry by examining the trajectory of values affecting views of wildlife in North America. Using data from a 19‐state study in the United States and global data from the Schwartz Value Survey, we explored questions of value persistence and change and the nature of attitudinal responses regarding wildlife conservation issues. We found support, based on subjects’ ancestry, for the supposition that domination is a prevalent American value orientation toward wildlife that has origins in European Judeo‐Christian traditions. Independent of that effect, we also found indications of change. Modernization is contributing to a shift from domination to mutualism value orientations, which is fostering attitudes less centered on human interests and seemingly more consistent with a biocentric philosophy. Our findings suggest that if value shift could be achieved in a purposeful way, then significant and widespread behavior change believed necessary for long‐term conservation success may indeed be possible. In particular, greater emphasis on mutualism values may help provide the context for more collaborative approaches to support future conservation efforts. However, given the societal forces at play, it is not at all clear that human‐engineered value shift is tenable. Instead of developing strategies aimed at altering values, it may be more productive to create strategies that recognize and work within the boundaries of existing values. Whereas values appear to be in a period of flux, it will be difficult to predict future trends without a better understanding of value formation and shift, particularly under conditions of rapid social‐ecological change.     

Fuzzy experts on recreational vessels, a risk modelling approach for marine invasions

Understanding risks from the human-mediated spread of non-indigenous species (NIS) is a critical component of marine biosecurity management programmes. Recreational boating is well-recognised as a NIS pathway, especially at a regional scale. Assessment of risks from this pathway is therefore desirable for coastal environments where recreational boating occurs. However, formal or quantitative risk assessment for the recreational vessel pathway is often hampered by lack of data, hence often relies on expert opinion. The use of expert opinion itself is sometimes limited by its inherent vagueness, which can be an important source of uncertainty that reduces the validity and applicability of the assessment. Fuzzy logic, specifically interval type-2 fuzzy logic, is able to model and propagate this type of uncertainty, and is a useful technique in risk assessment where expert opinion is relied upon. The present paper describes the implementation of a NIS fuzzy expert system (FES) for assessing the risk of invasion in marine environments via recreational vessels. The FES was based on expert opinion gathered through systematic elicitation exercises, designed to acknowledge important uncertainty sources (e.g., underspecificity and ambiguity). The FES, using interval type-2 fuzzy logic, calculated an invasion risk value (integrating NIS infection and detection probabilities) for a range of invasion scenarios. These scenarios were defined by all possible combinations of two vessel types (moored and trailered), five vessel components (hull, deck, internal spaces, anchor, fishing gear), two infection modes (fouling, water/sediment retention) and six frequently visited marine habitats (marina, mooring, farm, ramp, wharf, anchorage). Although invasion risk values determined using the FES approach was scenario-specific, general patterns were identified. Moored vessels consistently showed higher invasion risk values than trailered vessels. Invasion risk values were higher for anchorages, moorings and wharves. Similarly, hull-fouling was revealed as the highest infection risk mode after pooling results across all habitats. The NIS fuzzy expert system presented here appears as a valuable prioritising and decision-making tool for NIS research, prevention and control activities. Its easy implementation and wide applicability should encourage the development and application of this type of system as an integral part of biosecurity, and other environmental management plans.     

生命经济价值研究

正确估算人的生命经济价值,对于正确评价企业安全投资的经济效益有着重要的意义。在借鉴国内外计算方法的基础上,选择马克思的劳动价值论及其最新研究成果与现代人力资本理论作为立论的基础。设计了生命价值新的计算模型。不仅为个人在各种事故中的赔偿和涉及人身的各种民事诉讼提供仲裁或判决依据,而且为科学的安全投入决策提供了新的视角和依据。     

Environmental assessment of garden waste management in the Municipality of Aarhus, Denmark

An environmental assessment of six scenarios for handling of garden waste in the Municipality of Aarhus (Denmark) was performed from a life cycle perspective by means of the LCA-model EASEWASTE. In the first (baseline) scenario, the current garden waste management system based on windrow composting was assessed, while in the other five scenarios alternative solutions including incineration and home composting of fractions of the garden waste were evaluated. The environmental profile (normalised to Person Equivalent, PE) of the current garden waste management in Aarhus is in the order of −6 to 8 mPE Mg⁻¹ ww for the non-toxic categories and up to 100 mPE Mg⁻¹ ww for the toxic categories. The potential impacts on non-toxic categories are much smaller than what is found for other fractions of municipal solid waste. Incineration (up to 35% of the garden waste) and home composting (up to 18% of the garden waste) seem from an environmental point of view suitable for diverting waste away from the composting facility in order to increase its capacity. In particular the incineration of woody parts of the garden waste improved the environmental profile of the garden waste management significantly.     

微量金属元素及其配合物对厨余垃圾甲烷发酵的影响

生物可利用的微量金属元素不仅能够保证污染物以最大的速率转化，而且还可以使某些特殊的转化得以发生，并提高微生物对有毒污染物质的耐受能力。在研究厨余垃圾总固体浓度(total solid, TS)、接种量和C/N比对厨余垃圾厌氧发酵影响的基础上，重点探讨微量金属元素钴及其配合物丝氨酸对厨余垃圾厌氧发酵甲烷产量及关键酶含量的影响。结果表明，当TS为0.5%、接种污泥量为100 mL/L和C/N比为20∶1时，厨余垃圾厌氧发酵的甲烷产率较高，为367 mL/g COD；添加2 μmol/L的微量金属元素钴-配合物丝氨酸时，甲烷产率则提高到432 mL/g COD，相应地，辅酶M的含量由空白实验的41.21 μmol/g VSS提高到54.64 μmol/g VSS，辅酶F₄₂₀的含量由0.31 μmol/g VSS提高到0.48 μmol/g VSS。     

水体pH值时空变化条件下絮凝除藻剂的pH值优化

研究了由光照、水深等造成的水体pH值变化对絮凝剂除藻效果的影响,并监测絮凝前后不同深度的水体pH值。结果表明:1)当水体pH值无垂向分层,但随光照在8.5~10.5变化时,表层水体终点pH值为5.8~7.9,除藻效率均高于80%,此时中下层水体pH值为5.4~8.0;2)当水体pH值有垂向分层,表层水体终点pH值为7.0~7.3时,除藻效率均高于80%,此时中下层水体pH值为7.0~7.1;3)水池实验中,当表层水体终点pH为6.8时,除藻率高达99.33%,此时中下层水体pH值为7.0~7.1,池水清澈见底。上述结果说明:不论水体pH值是否垂向分层,控制表层水体终点pH值为6.8~7.3时既能有效除藻,也不会使底层水体pH值过低;水体pH值有垂向分层时,絮凝剂的pH值应高于无垂向分层时的情况。     

基于神经网络的碳排放预测及影响因素分析

基于新疆1995—2014年农业生产碳排放源,建立碳排放关系数据库。应用广义神经网络(generalized regression neural network,GRNN)构建了排放量预测模型,结合平均影响值(mean impact value,MIV)方法对碳排放影响因素进行量化。结果表明:1)GRNN模型预测碳排放的平均绝对百分误差和拟合优度分别为2.7860%和0.8720;2)新疆人口、人均GDP、农业贡献值、农机总动力和农户固定资产投资等因素对农业生产碳排放的影响程度分别为0.6210、0.2377、0.3698、0.8500和0.1000。该成果可为新疆碳排放总量分析和影响因素量化方面提供参考。     

基于生态系统服务功能的城市规划研究

健康的生态系统是城市可持续发展的重要基础,生态系统服务功能及价值评估是评价生态系统的重要指标,森林、草地、湿地等生态系统在调节气候、保持土壤、涵养水源等方面具有重要作用.以宁波市北仑区为例,应用市场价值化方法粗略地分析了该区域的生态系统服务功能现状,结果表明,13年间北仑区的生态服务价值下降11.35%,其中,草地的生态服务价值下降最快,降幅达79.84%.从生态经济学角度阐释森林等生态系统在城市开发建设中的重要性.     

浙中典型富硒土壤区土壤硒含量的影响因素探讨

通过对浙江省中部典型富硒土壤区的系统调查研究,总结了影响土壤硒含量的主要因素.结果表明,地质背景对土壤硒含量有控制作用,汤溪组、之江组和金华组分布区的土壤硒含量明显高于其他地质背景区.研究同时发现,土地利用方式对土壤硒的迁移富集有不可忽视的影响,旱地土壤比水田土壤更易富集硒元素.由于土壤有机质对硒的吸附与固定作用,致使其成为影响硒含量的重要因素之一.除此之外,研究认为土壤质地也是影响土壤硒含量的重要因素,土壤中黏粒含量越多,越黏重,硒含量往往较高.